In a dramatic finish line sprint, Germany’s Daniel Unger edged out red-hot Matt Reed of the USA and defending home country champion Hendrik DeVilliers of the Republic of South Africa to win his very first World Cup Sunday in Richards Bay.

In a slightly milder reprise of his dramatic come-from-behind win at the ITU World Championship in Hamburg last September, Unger waited until the final hill in the last kilometer to make a push that drove him past DeVilliers and withstood a final surge by Reed.

When he crossed the line in 1:52:49, Unger had a few yards and one second on his two rivals. Reed edged DeVilliers by an outthrust chest to gain second. Reversing the normal order of career progression, Unger’s first World Cup win comes seven months after his stunning first World Championship.

Unger’s blazing 30:51 final 10k overcame a 20-second advantage beginning the run Reed earned by a late bike surge with fellow American Brian Fleischmann. Reed’s 31:12 run was 5th best, the cost of his bike strategy that mirrored his last lap surge that won him the second American’s men’s Olympic slot at Tuscaloosa two weeks ago. But Reed, who came into battle at Richards Bay on fire after wins at Miami, Tuscaloosa and St. Anthony’s, had just enough left to counter DeVillier’s desperate last lap run sprint.

By getting nipped at the line, Reed maintains a streak he’d love to break. The 32-year-old new American citizen has now led 22 ITU World Cup events without a victory. But in the narrow loss, Reed has staked a strong claim to be considered America’s best current contender for a medal in Beijing. Thanks to a diagnosis of exercise induced asthma made last December, Reed has enjoyed his first uninterrupted, healthy training block in a long time and his run shows the difference.

Underlining his newly perfected strength on the run, Reed led nearly all day and made a countersurge after being passed at the 9 kilometer mark. The man he almost came back and beat - Daniel Unger - is the only man to have withstood a late race move and repassed two-time reigning ITU World Cup series champion Javier Gomez - the best runner i n the sport today.

Russia temporarily overtakes U.S. men for third Olympic slot

In a subplot that contains even more drama for the US men, Russia’s Dimitry Polyansky finished seventh and temporarily knocked the United States out of an expected third Olympic slot.

According to ITU rules, eight nations will earn the maximum number of three Olympic slots. Before Richards Bay, the U.S. men stood eighth – the final nation receiving three Olympic slots. Russia stood ninth with two Olympic men’s slots.

According to the International Triathlon Union’s complicated national Olympic qualification points system, the dividing line between nations is the position of their third athlete in the rankings. With his 7th place finish at Richards Bay, third-ranking Russian Polyansky advanced his Olympic qualification point total by 188 points. This moved him ahead of the third-ranking U.S. man Hunter Kemper by 135 points -- 2493 to 2358.

While Polyanksy is free to pursue up to 400 points for winning next week’s European Continental Cup Championship, he is operating under a handicap in the race to earn Russian men three Olympic slots. Before Richards Bay, Polyanksy had already raced 12 times, while only an athlete’s best 9 performances from 2007 through June 8, 2008 will count.

While Polyanksy scored 313 points for his seventh place finish, he had to throw out his former 9th best score of 125 points, leaving him with a net plus of 188 points.

With World Cup races offering a maximum of 500 points and the World Championship offering double the normal points and a maximum of 1000 points for the win, the US men seem to have the long term advantage.

With his second place finish at Richards Bay, Matt Reed earned 463 Olympic qualification points, moving him from 1833 to 2296 points, within 197 points of Polyansky and within 62 points of Kemper.

While Polyanksy can theoretically add up to 270 net points and give Russia a 400-point lead over the US with a top finish at the European Championships, American athletes have a great chance of having the last word.

Both Kemper and Reed are scheduled to race at the BG Triathlon World Cup in Madrid later this month and at the ITU World Championship in Vancouver on June 8. Neither will be under Polyanksy’s burden of having to throw out races and can freely rack up national Olympic qualification points.

Still, the current situation is eerily similar to the US men’s Olympic qualification plight in 2000. Then, Kemper had to put his team on his shoulders and chase Olympic qualification points all over the world. The effort succeeded, but compromised Kemper’s fitness and he finished a disappointing 17th at Sydney.

With lots of factors in their favor, the U.S. men can still fall short if Reed and Kemper encounter bad luck at Madrid and Vancouver and Polyansky continues to plug away and accumulate points.

In the very unlikely scenario that worst comes to worst and the US men end up with only two Olympic slots after Vancouver, the US Olympic qualifying rules come back into play with the ultimate, last-minute wrench thrown into the works.

After a careful re-reading of these rules, here is the shocker: If the US ends up with only two Olympic slots, then Matt Reed no longer has an automatic Olympic qualifying slot for his win at Tuscaloosa. In that earth-shattering case, the Hy-Vee Triathlon, rather than being made irrelevant, will become more important than ever.

If just two slots total are at stake, all the American men's points will be taken into consideration for the second and final American men's Olympic slot. At that point, the only American man whose spot would be guaranteed would be Jarrod Shoemaker for his win at Beijing. The rest of the American men would go into Hy-Vee still looking to be fitted for that precious Olympic ring -- in this order:

Hunter Kemper: 2nd (Beijing) and 3rd (Tuscaloosa) = 5 points
Andy Potts: 3rd (Beijing) and 2nd (Tuscaloosa) = 5 points
Matt Reed: 1st (Tuscaloosa) and 5th (Beijing) = 6 points
Doug Friman: 4th (Beijing) and must be first American at Hy-Vee (1 point) to have a chance
Brian Fleischmann: 4th (Tuscaloosa) and must be first American at Hy-Vee (1 point) to have a chance.

There are other parameters of this crazy points maze, but this is the basic outline of
a very messy situation that is nirvana for stats nerds.

Richards Bay BG Triathlon World Cup
Richards Bay, South Africa
May 4, 2008
S 1.5k/ B 40k/ R 10k

Results

Men

1. Daniel Unger (Ger) 1:52:49
2. Matt Reed (USA) 1:52:50
3. Hendrik DeVilliers (RSA) 1:52:50
4. Kyle Jones (Can) 1:53:00
5. Laurent Vidal (Fra) 1:53:06
6. Reinaldo Colucci (Bra) 1:53:18
7. Dimitry Polyansky (Rus) 1:53:30
8. Sander Berk (Ned) 1:53:31
9. Simon Agoston (Aut) 1:53:34
10. Duarte Silva Marques (Por) 1:53:38
19. Matt Chrabot (USA) 1:54:43
33. Brian Fleischmann (USA) 1:57:08